WHAT IS DYNAMIC VALUE INVESTING?
Dynamic Value Investing™ is an active approach to classic value investing that takes market trends and individual stock entry and exit points into consideration when buying or selling equities. This is very different than classic buy-and-hold investing which attempts to buy good companies for the long term and try to let your stock grow as the company grows. The buy-and-hold approach worked well during the secular bull market of the 80's and 90's. Unfortunately, we're living in new times. Investing has changed dramatically since the year 2000 when the last secular bull market ended.
Many buy-and-hold investors feel like a deer in the headlights, wondering why the 'good' company stocks they bought for their retirement has lost them so much money. It's not the company that caused the problem. It's the investor's approach. Our theory suggests that investors must now embrace a dynamic approach to classic value investing if they hope to achieve any degree of performance from their equity investments over the coming decade.
HOW DOES IT WORK?
Although these patterns can be traced back to the early 1700s, a 109-year chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (below) graphically shows the long secular periods that form 15/17-year bull markets and 15/17-year consolidations which make up the basis of the Dynamic Value Investing™ Theory:
The market goes through 17-year patterns of bull rallies followed by 17-year consolidations. We are currently in the middle of a consilidation that started in 2000. Click chart to enlarge.
As you can see from the chart, the equities market goes through long, generational bull runs followed by equally long flat periods or consolidations in which the excesses of the last bull market are unwound. In correlation with these secular trends, the average P/E ratio of the stock market slowly declines over the course of the long secular consolidation. I'll tell you how this information will be used in moment.
WHY SHOULD THIS INFORMATION BE IMPORTANT TO YOU?
Many buy-and-hold investors lost a great deal of their investment funds in the last two market meltdowns. In mid 2009, market indices are at the same level they were at 10 years ago. But with all the wild swings, huge volatility, 9-11 terrorist attacks, internet and real estate bubbles bursting, credit crunch and other financial shenanigans, it's easy to understand why there's been no gain in a decade!
The chart below focuses in on the last 30 years. You can see the last secular bull market (1982-2000 in blue) as well as the range-bound channel (red) the market is currently in:
This 30-year chart shows the last half of the 1982-2000 secular bull market
and the
first half
of the consolidation we are currently in. Use IntelligentValue to guide you through these treacherous waters and make money using our Dynamic Value Investing approach. |
But you don't have to ride this thrashing investment bronco. If you had been investing using our portfolio based on Dynamic Value, you could have made an 820% return* instead of breaking even or losing money. How can we be so sure? Because that's the profit we earned in our Aggressive Portfolio.
Are you tired of the financial rollercoaster ride? Unfortunately, it's not likely to stop until 2016-2017. That's when the next bull market should begin. But there is an alternative. It's a way to not just deal with the rollercoaster ride, but to use the rollercoaster to your advantage and harness its power to make money for you.
SO HOW DO I MAKE MONEY FROM THIS LONG-TERM THEORY?
Theories are nice for academics, but you probably want to know if there's a way to make money from it right now. Answer: YES THERE IS!
The bad news is that there will likely be no overall return in the stock market for almost another decade. But that doesn't mean you can't make money. In fact, the returns can be far higher in this volatile environment if you know how to put the movements of the market to work for you.
During consolidations, the market moves up and down in a trading range, and it generally feels like a very bad roller-coaster ride. The last bull market that allowed easy, one-decision investing in solid, value-based companies was 1982-2000. The next generational bull period will likely be about 2018 through 2034. In the meantime, you need to use Dynamic Value Investing to identify market trends and make profits regardless of the market environment.
By using the IntelligentValue approach, you will be fully invested as upward trends develop - then fade those trends as economic headwinds evolve. In downward markets, you'll move toward cash, preventing loses. We don't advocate day trading or timing the market. But by knowing where we are in a market cycle trend, we have an advantage over other investors who do not see the bigger picture.
Unfortunately, in the financial crisis in 2008, hundreds of millions of everyday people who were holding publicly traded stocks for retirement have seen half or more of their life savings wiped out by the current secular consolidation. IntelligentValue's Dynamic Value Investing™ approach can allow ordinary investors to recover those losses and make high returns that are far above expectations over the next decade. That statement is supported by the returns of our example portfolio, documented by an independent third-party financial data provider. Read more about stock market cycles at this link.
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*10-year avg. S&P 500 P/E ratio study by Dr. Robert J. Shiller, Yale University. Basis of 1900-present DJIA chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. Secular range-bound consolidation periods following secular bull markets over the last 200 years has also been studied by Kevin Tuttle at tuttleassetmanagement.com, and in the book, "Active Value Investing," 2007 by Vitaliy N Katsenelson, University of Colorado.
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